Puffers Posts - Is This the Raptors?

Last night the Raps looked like world beaters as they took apart the Chicago Bulls. Mind you, this was a Bulls team without Ben Wallace, Ben Gordon and a game in which Luol deng only played 5 minutes or so.

On the other side, the Raps were without Chris Bosh, still resting his sore knee, and only got six minutes each from Anthony Parker and Jason Kapono. So it was largely a game of bench against bench,and that is a game the Raps would love to play, most nights.

Andrea got 19 points, with at least 6 of them coming from inside the paint on slashing drives and a few more from short inside passes. He also picked up more than his normal share of rebounds. In fact, the Raps out rebounded the Bulls for most of the game until the last half of the fourth quarter, during scrub time, when they were also out scored.

I made a point of watching Jason Kapono's defensive efforts, and he played an excellent positional game in his time on the floor. Good box outs, good face up play, effectively cutting off the lanes and, when his man was loose, disrupting passing attempts to him. Jason gets beat on D, but the times I've watched him exclusively, I've been pleasantly surprised. There are Raptors teams in the past where he would have been the number 3 man, defensively.

Of the three wing players fighting for the starting spot, I would say Kapono does a better, more consistent defensive job than Graham. You aren't going to see any athletic blocks, but he is also not going to be on the opposite side of the floor from where he is supposed to be because he forgot his assignment. I wish I could say the same about Joey.

I think Luke Jackson punched his going away ticket on Friday. The way things stand right now, there doesn't seem to be any upside for Luke, but there's really no telling where Jamario Moon could get to, except you know it's above some rung on the ladder that Jackson is climbing. Luke played well for the first few games he was in last year, but he has done nothing this preseason. I suspect he is playing tight when he does get some burn, and so makes silly anxiety motivated boneheaded plays. That is too bad, but it is not going to win him any points with Sam. Unless he is the perfect practice guy, it's hard to see him making it out of training camp.

If the Raps are to get off to a good start this season, and I think they have an excellent chance to light things up in their first dozen games, it is imperative that Chris play the next two preseason games. He needs to be in rythmn when the season starts. You know Chris will be good for 22/11 or so this year, probably better. Both Doug Smith, of the Toronto Star and I think Bargs can average right around 19/7 for the year. But it is critical that these two spend time playing together. They can create a living hell for other teams, especially in the East.

TJ has been playing largely under control so far, but we haven't seen enough NBA opponenets to make a good assessment about his play. Parker seemed to wake up a little in the Bulls game. He has been quiet so far this year. He needs to start faster than he did last year for the Raps to make a run at the Atlantic Division banner.

I believe the Raps are being under-rated again this season. I don't think enough credit is being given to Bargs improvements, because his appendicitis and flu at the end of last season caused a signifivcant drop off in his numbers and effectiveness. I think sports writers are giving too much credit to the impact of Shaq and Wade on Kapono's game last year. The Raps run a much better style of attack for Jasons skill set. He should thrive once he gets a solid rotation and a little more comfortable. I think his game was hurt in playing Euro teams, this preseason. They have a much more defensively skilled collection of players, who are better at help defense and team defense than is the case in the NBA. I think Jason will have no trouble averaging 13 - 15 points a game in 25 minutes. I think Sam will use Delfino for anywhere from 15 - 20 minutes at the 3. Too bad Joey.

I think this year, the Raps will have fewer than 10 games decided by 1-2 points. Their offense is significantly improved, and their defense is a bit better. Enough to move them three spots up the NBA ranks. Mark them down for 48 wins.

Boston??? Give me a break. They will improve to the point where they are no longer a laughing stock, maybe fighting it out for one of the last two spots in the East.

At least, that's my takee.

The Truth According to Kobe

Kobe Bryant's vanity website, kb24.com, seems to be going through some server troubles, with unintentionally hilarious results. There's a section called "The Truth" where Kobe writes ordinarily banal things and signs his posts Strength and Honor, Mambo.

Yes, he calls himself Mambo. It's like Babe Ruth writing his grocery list and signing it The Sultan of Swat.

But given the latest twists in the Laker soap opera this week, the truth is apparently in short supply:




Incidentally, I immediately took to Kobe's closing and have begun to sign my office memos the same way:

Dear Delores,

We are out of pens. We are also running low on office whiskey and the canary-colored legal pads which are easy on my eyes. Could you visit the supply closet and stop at the liquor store on the corner on your way back? There's a 10 spot in it for you.

Strength and Honor,
Granbo

Edit: Ha, and now it's back. Thank God I saved a screenshot.

Blood Flows Red on the Salary Cap

A few days ago on the altraps forum, Scott pointed out this article regarding the rather unprecedented (at least under the current CBA, as well as its immediate predecessors) hold-outs of two Cavs restricted free agents: noted Slobodan Milosevic fan Sasha Pavlovic and noted gay community icon Anderson Varejao:

The summers of 2004, 2005 and 2006 featured record spending in the NBA. Part of it was due to a new collective bargaining agreement in 2005 that bolstered the salary cap.Lots of max contracts were given out, numerous teams had, and used, giant amounts of cap space; lots of teams used their entire mid-level exceptions to sign mid-level players to contracts worth more than $35 million; and lots of restricted free agents got huge deals without having to get legitimate offers elsewhere.

That was the flow, now is the ebb.

(The article also points out that the Raptors were the only team in the NBA this summer to use their full mid-level exemption to lure a player away from another team -- the frankly somewhat bizarre signing of Jason Kapono. This is actually not entirely accurate, as the capped-out Bulls used nearly all of theirs in the understandable but certainly no less painful signing of Joe Smith.)

I've long argued that it's these mid-level deals and not the obviously bloated max-contracts to unworthy players that destroy a team's cap flexibility. Never in their Clipper careers will Cuttino Mobley or the Talented Tim Thomas be their team's highest paid player, but the Clips will be on the hook for a combined $14 million dollars for their dubious services for each of the next three seasons. Look around the league and you see a lot of toxic tandems like this, from Vlad Radmanovic and Kwame Brown for Lakers (nearly $15 million this season) to Kenny Thomas and Shareef Abdur-Rahim for the Kings ($13 million escalating up to $15 million over the next three years).

Of course, the master of the pointless mid-level exemption is still Kevin McHale of the Minnesota Timberwolves. Prior to this summer's firesale, the Wolves were on the hook for past MLE-like duds like rap superstar Troy Hudson ($6.5 million on average over the next three years), Marko Jaric ($6 escalating to $7.5 million over the next four years) and Mike James (an average of $6.5 million over the next three years). Note that all three of them were point guards, and none have ever been good enough to start for anything resembling a playoff team. Dumping Kevin Garnett this summer was a useful distraction from the fact that the team is still on the hook for $18 million dollars for useless scrubs.

Yi Jianlian: This Year's Araujo?

In 2004 -- one of the deepest drafts in the years prior to this season -- a recently hired GM broke his NBA cherry by drafting a foreign player far higher than anyone expected. Rob Babcock really didn't have a prayer of winning any Executive of the Year awards after he plucked Rafael Araujo out of obscurity and made him the Raptors' #8 pick, passing on Andre Iguodala (#9), Andris Biedrins (#11), Al Jefferson (#15) and even Josh Smith (#17) along the way. Three years later, the scorned players (all but Iguodala were teenagers on draft day; Iggy was all of 20) are coming into their own, while Araujo is out of the NBA.

Babcock later claimed that he had inadequate time to prepare for the draft after his recent hire by the Raptors. Bucks GM Larry Harris, on the other hand, has been on the job for several years now, and doesn't have the luxury of making the same excuse after he shocked observers and drafted Yi Jianlian with the #6 overall pick in the 2007 draft.

Much of the derision aimed at the Bucks after picking Yi had to do with drafting a player that, from all indications, greeted the chance to play in Cheeseville with the enthusiasm Shawn Kemp used to have for court-ordered paternity tests. But the real risk isn't that the Bucks drafted a player that didn't want to be there, but drafted a player that no one really knew anything about.

At this point, I can say that I've seen every minute of Yi's NBA career -- a pair of exhibition games against the Bulls and Utah, respectively. Let me make a proclamation so assured that it hardly qualifies as such: if Yi Jianlian has a future in this league, it's as a rather mediocre role player.

Prior to the draft, the only footage circulating of Yi rivaled the Zapruder Film in quality. An NBA exec with a decent budget (this is Milwaukee, after all) could probably obtain more, but I wonder if the Bucks were aware that the camera only added ten pounds. Yi is pencil thin -- it's impossible to overstate just how skinny he is. I've seen Luol Deng as a 19 year old, and Tayshaun Prince in high school when he was teammates with Tyson Chandler (speaking of basing a draft pick on workouts and grainy footage...) Yi is easily the thinnest player I've seen since Manute Bol or Chuck Nevitt, and like those players, I have difficulty imaginging him putting significant weight on.

Yet with the arms of a teenage girl, one would expect Yi to possess some dimension of agility or quickness. He doesn't. And Yi is incredibly awkward both with the ball and running the court -- almost like a child that's gone through a dramatic growth spurt and hasn't yet adjusted to his size.

This then is the real importance of Yi's disputed age. He's "officially" 19 years old, though there's some evidence he may be as old as 25. Though he does look younger than the latter, this isn't exactly compelling evidence: I saw former Bulls guard BJ Armstrong a few months ago, and I'd still card him if I saw him trying to buy beer. There should be as much optimism that an older Yi will bulk up or suddenly gallop like a deer as there is that noted eunuch Doug Christie will be on an NBA roster come November 1st.

In any case, the Bucks shifted Yi around the frontcourt in both games as they're as clueless as I am about what kind of match-up would give him a marked advantage over an opponent. He was routinely beaten off the dribble by smaller players, where his lack of agility and quickness against even second-tier NBA small forwards was obvious. At the power positions, unathletic big men like the Bulls' Aaron Gray (a second round pick expected to spend most of this season commuting between the bench and the D-League) were able to knock him around and even -- surprisingly for a 7'0" defender with long arms -- shoot over him. You can't teach height, but outside of Rocky chasing chickens around, you can't teach agility either.

I'm at a loss to think of anything, in fact, that it looks like Yi can do better than the average. Outside of "hit open shots" (a skill that even Ben Wallace can manage -- I'm serious, he can drain 3 pointers in practice), I can't think of one. What you have is a fairly average seven footer with a better touch than most guys his size but deficient in nearly every other aspect of the game. Due to his physique, I have difficulty imagining this changing. It's an absolute certainty that it won't if he's as old as I think he is.

Yet the Bucks don't have the convenience of stashing Yi in the weight room for the next 12 months to try to get him to add some much needed bulk. Like the Raptors with Araujo, the pressure of being an unexpected lottery pick places considerable pressure on a team to force minutes on a player that's clearly overmatched. There's even more pressure on the Bucks to overplay Yi: after all, having him buried on the bench behind Charlie Villanueva, Desmond Mason and Bobby Simmons would be exactly what the team promised the various Commie athletic organizations would not happen.

Puffers Posts - Raps at Lottomatica Roma

An intersting game to watch from a couple of perspectives. First, Hubie Brown was one of the commentators, and I love Hubie Brown. Next, it was interesting to see the Raps playing against a well prepared unit that has already been in training camp for 2 1/2 months and played several exhbition games together. Third, Roko and several of the Roma players were obviously trying to showcase their talents with a larger (make that North American) audience, and they showed well for themselves. The ESPN commentators mentioned several as looking NBA ready.

The Raps played with a shorter rotation, only using 11 players. Interesting to see Dixon get 16 minutes, Humphries 13 and Joey only with 7. Of course, Rasho didn't play at all, and I think the Raps could have used him, so you can't read too much into the playing time thing.

Bosh and Kapono got the most minutes at around 30 each. I'm not surprised by this since I would expect Mitchell to want to see how these two perform together.

The first half was entertaining, it kind of fell apart in the thrid but the Raps tightened it up part way through the fourth to make it a respectable win.

Aside from showing the Raps a lot of love and respect, Hubie pointed out that Kapono would be a very good fit with the Raps because they have scorers who can also drive. Their starting 5 have excellent FT %'s and with Kapono stretching the defense even more than last year, guys like Parker and Bargnani are going to to benefit, since they can put the ball on the floor and either score or draw the fouls.

Also interesting were some stats that the commentators threw out. They mentioned that in the last 61 games of the season, the Raps won 40, which was better than all but 4 other teams in the league, all in the west. They had the best record in the east for that stretch, edging out Detroit. As well, that 61 game stretch represented a turn around defensively from a -4 points per game differential to a +3 points per game differential, a 7 point jump. The implication is that for the last 3/4 of the season, Totonto played much better defensively.

Watching Kapono and Delphino and seeing some improvement in Bargnani, and hoping that Garbs can play the full year, I would have to believe that losing Morris Peterson isn't going to hurt the Raps. I think they will be a defensively improved team this season.

It's early, but I'm pumped. Let's start the season NOW.

Puffers Posts - Raps Vs Celtics. Isn't This Preseason?

This did not look like a pre-season game until part way through the fourth quarter. When you have Garnett arguing with officials, Bosh diving to the floor for a loose ball, starters getting major minutes in a non-NBA market, you have to think you are not in Kansas anymore.

Right from the opening buzzer the intensity in this game was much more akin to a regular season game. The third quarter was closer to a regular season game late in the season, when the final seeding was on the line. Of course, Doc Rivers can be excused for playing his regular starting five a lot. He needs to see them, and they need to see each other in game time situations and do as much gelling as possible before Oct. 31.

Sam sat his starting five for about half the floor time so that he could get a better look at numbers 6 through 16. But when the first unit was on the floor, they played with intensity. I don't know if this is as a result of all the hype surrounding Bostons "Big Three" or simply a carryover from Sam's pre-season mantra of defense, defense, defense, but they looked pretty effective. As expected, the scoring wasn't much of a problem barring Anthony Parkers cold hand. Bosh did not get as many touches as one would like, but Kapono, Bagnani and Ford showed that any team can't afford to double Bosh without getting hurt bad.

What was a bit of a surprise was the overall defensive effectiveness of the Raptors 9 man rotation. Kapono was no liability on the floor. He got beat by Pierce a few times, but so does everyone in the league. TJ was effective, Parker and Bosh also, as expected. Bargnani was a pleasant surprise. Aside from one embarrassing baseline move by Garnett that left Andrea standing looking over his shoulder, he played pretty effectively facing his man, whether Garnett or Perkins.

The rest of the Raps came through defensively as well. Rasho looked very good, man-to-man or playing help defense. Garbo was as per usual. Delphino established that he is an effective defender, rarely losing his man and staying in front, forcing the pass and getting a few steals. Jose was again effective and even Juan Dixon did not look out of place. Graham had what I thought was his usual good/bad game. Baston, Moon, Humphries did not impress and I'm afraid Luke Jackson had better step up or start waving.

Hey, it's just one game, it's just exhibition, but I think the Raps were playing for something, and I think they showed a better defensive effort in this one than they did in half their games last year.

Puffers Posts - Three Pointers in Raptors Future?

Let’s talk about three point shooting on the Raptors in the coming season, an obvious area of strength for the team. If everything stays the same as last year, the Raps will have two players among the top 5 three point experts in the league, in Jason Kapono, ranked #1 last year, and Anthony Parker who tied for #5. The question on everybody’s mind should be, will this continue?

I have high expectations that it will. Jason had the good fortune to be on a team with two of the foremost offensive threats in the league, in Shaquille O’Neal and Dwayne Wade (thanks Granville for pointing out I had Dwight Howards name here. What was I thinking?) playing with him. You would expect this to open the floor and give him more open looks.

Actually, Shaq only played 6 games in the first 4 months of the season. These were the months when Jason played his best, when he played the most minutes. He shot 61% in November in 15 m/pg, 50% in Dec. in 26 m/pg, 58% in Jan. in 32 m/pg and 46% in Feb. in 33 m/pg. Jason has a rep as getting his shot off relativley quickly, so he maybe doesn't need as much space on the floor as you would think.

March was a bit of an anomaly. He only played 2 games, averaged 26 minutes a game and only hit for 17%. It looks to me like teams started to pay attention to Jason and were able to affect his shot a little. I didn’t check the game by game stats, but I wonder if he didn’t spend a chunk of time on the bench once Shaq got back. Shooters need to shoot to keep their hands hot.

Looking at Anthony Parker, he shot a terrible 28% in November, his first month back in the NBA. December's mark improved to 48%, as he found his rhythm and Sam Mitchell found out how better to use him. January he hit his peak for the year, ringing up 53% from downtown on 60 attempts. February he slumped a little, only achieving 43% andMarch was a bad month, with his percentage sinking to 33% on 27 shots attempted.

I wonder if he was hitting his own "rookie wall?" Note also that that is his lowest recorded shot attempts of the season. April AP bounced back with a 49% average on 61 shots.

Both of these players did better when they had the playing time. This year they are both slated to begin the season as starters. What is this going to mean for the Raps offensive strategies?

There can be no question on anybodies mind that opposing teams are not going to be able to double down on Bosh this year, the way they could last year. With two 3 point artists on the floor with the big power forward, unless they can smother Chris before he gets a chance to pass, they are going to be leaving themselves open for a world of hurt. Chris has been slow to get rid of the ball at times, but in pre-season interviews he identified passing out of double teams as one of the things he has worked on over the summer. Of course, Kapono and Parker are not his only two options.

TJ Ford showed last year that he has the kind of first step that can get him to the basket virtually anytime he wants to. The complaint from the fans was that sometimes he wanted to too much. But his field goal percentage and free throw percentages were at career highs last year. Shooting 82% from the stripe should mean you want him to drive as often as possible. If TJ stopped shooting threes, his FG% would be significantly higher. His only month above 33% for 3 pointers last year was Dec. yet he still managed to drop almost 44% of his shots from the field. Chris and TJ had an excellent pick and roll game going last year. There is no reason to think it won’t continue to be as effective. Stockton and Malone lived off this bread and butter play for most of their careers.

I should mention Toronto’s other three point threat, Andrea Bargnani. His season’s results stand out because of the contrasts. November and December he shot 33% and 28% respectively. These were his first two months in the league, of course, when Sam was still trying to work him into the rotation. For January, February and March he shot 39%, 48% and 37%. In March he only played in 8 games. If you remember, through March and April he was struggling with the flu and appendicitis. April’s abysmal 20% mark is attributable to his struggles coming back. In the playoffs he was back to form, hitting 41%.

So, putting the most optimistic light on things possible (and that’s what fans do in the pre-season) Anthony Parker should not have the slow beginning he did last year. Coming back as one of the starters, playing with players he is already familiar with should add up to better results from the corner, if anything. Jason Kapono will be starting, something that helps his % significantly. He will once again be in the enviable position of playing with serious scoring threats that need to be defended against, giving him open looks. And Adrea Bargnani has the good fortune to be established on the team, in familiar surroundings, and presumably not likely to suffer appendicitis again. I expect a good start from him, after his experience this summer playing ball in Europe.

Quite frankly, adding Chris Bosh and TJ Ford into this mix, there is not a starting 5 in the East that has a chance of playing effective defense against the Raps. The next big question…can the Raps play effective enough defense against anyone else to allow their significant scoring punch to win them games? Check back in December and we will all know better