Puffers Posts - Three Pointers in Raptors Future?

Let’s talk about three point shooting on the Raptors in the coming season, an obvious area of strength for the team. If everything stays the same as last year, the Raps will have two players among the top 5 three point experts in the league, in Jason Kapono, ranked #1 last year, and Anthony Parker who tied for #5. The question on everybody’s mind should be, will this continue?

I have high expectations that it will. Jason had the good fortune to be on a team with two of the foremost offensive threats in the league, in Shaquille O’Neal and Dwayne Wade (thanks Granville for pointing out I had Dwight Howards name here. What was I thinking?) playing with him. You would expect this to open the floor and give him more open looks.

Actually, Shaq only played 6 games in the first 4 months of the season. These were the months when Jason played his best, when he played the most minutes. He shot 61% in November in 15 m/pg, 50% in Dec. in 26 m/pg, 58% in Jan. in 32 m/pg and 46% in Feb. in 33 m/pg. Jason has a rep as getting his shot off relativley quickly, so he maybe doesn't need as much space on the floor as you would think.

March was a bit of an anomaly. He only played 2 games, averaged 26 minutes a game and only hit for 17%. It looks to me like teams started to pay attention to Jason and were able to affect his shot a little. I didn’t check the game by game stats, but I wonder if he didn’t spend a chunk of time on the bench once Shaq got back. Shooters need to shoot to keep their hands hot.

Looking at Anthony Parker, he shot a terrible 28% in November, his first month back in the NBA. December's mark improved to 48%, as he found his rhythm and Sam Mitchell found out how better to use him. January he hit his peak for the year, ringing up 53% from downtown on 60 attempts. February he slumped a little, only achieving 43% andMarch was a bad month, with his percentage sinking to 33% on 27 shots attempted.

I wonder if he was hitting his own "rookie wall?" Note also that that is his lowest recorded shot attempts of the season. April AP bounced back with a 49% average on 61 shots.

Both of these players did better when they had the playing time. This year they are both slated to begin the season as starters. What is this going to mean for the Raps offensive strategies?

There can be no question on anybodies mind that opposing teams are not going to be able to double down on Bosh this year, the way they could last year. With two 3 point artists on the floor with the big power forward, unless they can smother Chris before he gets a chance to pass, they are going to be leaving themselves open for a world of hurt. Chris has been slow to get rid of the ball at times, but in pre-season interviews he identified passing out of double teams as one of the things he has worked on over the summer. Of course, Kapono and Parker are not his only two options.

TJ Ford showed last year that he has the kind of first step that can get him to the basket virtually anytime he wants to. The complaint from the fans was that sometimes he wanted to too much. But his field goal percentage and free throw percentages were at career highs last year. Shooting 82% from the stripe should mean you want him to drive as often as possible. If TJ stopped shooting threes, his FG% would be significantly higher. His only month above 33% for 3 pointers last year was Dec. yet he still managed to drop almost 44% of his shots from the field. Chris and TJ had an excellent pick and roll game going last year. There is no reason to think it won’t continue to be as effective. Stockton and Malone lived off this bread and butter play for most of their careers.

I should mention Toronto’s other three point threat, Andrea Bargnani. His season’s results stand out because of the contrasts. November and December he shot 33% and 28% respectively. These were his first two months in the league, of course, when Sam was still trying to work him into the rotation. For January, February and March he shot 39%, 48% and 37%. In March he only played in 8 games. If you remember, through March and April he was struggling with the flu and appendicitis. April’s abysmal 20% mark is attributable to his struggles coming back. In the playoffs he was back to form, hitting 41%.

So, putting the most optimistic light on things possible (and that’s what fans do in the pre-season) Anthony Parker should not have the slow beginning he did last year. Coming back as one of the starters, playing with players he is already familiar with should add up to better results from the corner, if anything. Jason Kapono will be starting, something that helps his % significantly. He will once again be in the enviable position of playing with serious scoring threats that need to be defended against, giving him open looks. And Adrea Bargnani has the good fortune to be established on the team, in familiar surroundings, and presumably not likely to suffer appendicitis again. I expect a good start from him, after his experience this summer playing ball in Europe.

Quite frankly, adding Chris Bosh and TJ Ford into this mix, there is not a starting 5 in the East that has a chance of playing effective defense against the Raps. The next big question…can the Raps play effective enough defense against anyone else to allow their significant scoring punch to win them games? Check back in December and we will all know better