Puffers Posts - Raps over New Jersey

Well, where did that come from? No disrespect to the Raptors or any fans, but no one was looking for a 37 point drubbing of the team that put the Raps out of the playoffs last year. It kind of makes you wonder what happened. I watched the game last night, and it all kind of just unfolded in front of me, so this morning I decided to have a closer look at the boxscore. Here's what I found.

1. TJ and Calderon combined for 18 points, 15 assists and only 3 turnovers(all Fords)
2. Raps hit 15 of 16 Free throws (a 93.8% average)
3. Raps grabbed 37 rebounds
4. Raps shot 59.1% from 3 point land, making 13 0f 22
5. Raps shot 50.6% from the field.

Of course, the big question is why they achieved these marks? Are they likely to approach these kind of numbers again? Let's break it down.

1. Over his career TJ has averaged 7 assists to 3 turnovers. Calderon 5 to 1.5. So far this year they are 31 to 5. This is mostly due to a phenomenal improvement in the way Jose is taking care of the ball. This was evident in the preseason and it is holding true in the season so far. TJ is also playing much more controlled ball. I think it would have shown up even more in the preseason had the Raps not played against three Euro teams. Team defense is tighter and individual defensive skills are slightly higher in the top Erupean teams, I believe, than in the NBA.

2. The Raps starting 5, career wise, average 81% from the stripe. The next three, Delfino, Calderon and Dixon, average 78%. It isn't till you hit Nesterovic that there is any drop off. They have simply put together a good FT shooting team. The Nets starting five average 74%. They hit 72% during last nights game.

3. Kapono. Delfino, Dixon and Calderon combined for 18 rebounds against the Nets. Bosh only picked up 5 in 27 minutes, which is below his normal mark, but he is still rounding into shape. The large number of rb's from the guards and wing players speaks to the large number of outside shots and also the way the wing players are going for the glass, as per Mitchells instructions. Credit Bargnani as well, with having picked up his rebbounding. So far he has gathered in 11 in 55 minutes of play.

4. Three point shooting as a strength should not be a surprise on this team. Kapono was last years leader and, for his career, has always had a higher 3 pt average than field goal average. Parker was tied for 5th in the NBA last year and Bargnani, at the end of last season, was hitting a large % of his 3 pt shots.

5. The high % for this game is not going to be an aberation. (Not that I expect THAT high a % every game). The way the team can open up their offense should lead to high % shots inside, for Bosh and Bargs, driving opportunities for Calderon and Ford, and also leave Parker, Kapono, Delfino and Dixon relatively open from outside. The abilities of the second unit, when matched against other teams rotation players should also lead to higher % shots.

Obviously, New Jersey had a bad night. However, Kidd was harrassed by tight defense, as soon as he reached half court, and frequently before, leading to fewer fast break points.

Carter seemed entirely dis-interested once he reached his 15,000 point mark and particularly once he saw trhe game climbing out of reach. Credit Parker and Delfino for playing good defense on his as well, and for Dixon. The three of them did a good job of switching between Carter and Richardson. Of course, Richardson got his, but you have to let somebody score if you play help defense. You just don't want both to score.

This game was an encouraging sign of what could be. The team seems to have bought into the "Team Defense" concept, which includes guards and wing players rebounding, and also into the "Look for the best shot" philosophy, which should add up to numerous high assist to field goal ratio nights.

Now let's see how they do against Boston.

Puffers Posts - Three Pointers in Raptors Future?

Let’s talk about three point shooting on the Raptors in the coming season, an obvious area of strength for the team. If everything stays the same as last year, the Raps will have two players among the top 5 three point experts in the league, in Jason Kapono, ranked #1 last year, and Anthony Parker who tied for #5. The question on everybody’s mind should be, will this continue?

I have high expectations that it will. Jason had the good fortune to be on a team with two of the foremost offensive threats in the league, in Shaquille O’Neal and Dwayne Wade (thanks Granville for pointing out I had Dwight Howards name here. What was I thinking?) playing with him. You would expect this to open the floor and give him more open looks.

Actually, Shaq only played 6 games in the first 4 months of the season. These were the months when Jason played his best, when he played the most minutes. He shot 61% in November in 15 m/pg, 50% in Dec. in 26 m/pg, 58% in Jan. in 32 m/pg and 46% in Feb. in 33 m/pg. Jason has a rep as getting his shot off relativley quickly, so he maybe doesn't need as much space on the floor as you would think.

March was a bit of an anomaly. He only played 2 games, averaged 26 minutes a game and only hit for 17%. It looks to me like teams started to pay attention to Jason and were able to affect his shot a little. I didn’t check the game by game stats, but I wonder if he didn’t spend a chunk of time on the bench once Shaq got back. Shooters need to shoot to keep their hands hot.

Looking at Anthony Parker, he shot a terrible 28% in November, his first month back in the NBA. December's mark improved to 48%, as he found his rhythm and Sam Mitchell found out how better to use him. January he hit his peak for the year, ringing up 53% from downtown on 60 attempts. February he slumped a little, only achieving 43% andMarch was a bad month, with his percentage sinking to 33% on 27 shots attempted.

I wonder if he was hitting his own "rookie wall?" Note also that that is his lowest recorded shot attempts of the season. April AP bounced back with a 49% average on 61 shots.

Both of these players did better when they had the playing time. This year they are both slated to begin the season as starters. What is this going to mean for the Raps offensive strategies?

There can be no question on anybodies mind that opposing teams are not going to be able to double down on Bosh this year, the way they could last year. With two 3 point artists on the floor with the big power forward, unless they can smother Chris before he gets a chance to pass, they are going to be leaving themselves open for a world of hurt. Chris has been slow to get rid of the ball at times, but in pre-season interviews he identified passing out of double teams as one of the things he has worked on over the summer. Of course, Kapono and Parker are not his only two options.

TJ Ford showed last year that he has the kind of first step that can get him to the basket virtually anytime he wants to. The complaint from the fans was that sometimes he wanted to too much. But his field goal percentage and free throw percentages were at career highs last year. Shooting 82% from the stripe should mean you want him to drive as often as possible. If TJ stopped shooting threes, his FG% would be significantly higher. His only month above 33% for 3 pointers last year was Dec. yet he still managed to drop almost 44% of his shots from the field. Chris and TJ had an excellent pick and roll game going last year. There is no reason to think it won’t continue to be as effective. Stockton and Malone lived off this bread and butter play for most of their careers.

I should mention Toronto’s other three point threat, Andrea Bargnani. His season’s results stand out because of the contrasts. November and December he shot 33% and 28% respectively. These were his first two months in the league, of course, when Sam was still trying to work him into the rotation. For January, February and March he shot 39%, 48% and 37%. In March he only played in 8 games. If you remember, through March and April he was struggling with the flu and appendicitis. April’s abysmal 20% mark is attributable to his struggles coming back. In the playoffs he was back to form, hitting 41%.

So, putting the most optimistic light on things possible (and that’s what fans do in the pre-season) Anthony Parker should not have the slow beginning he did last year. Coming back as one of the starters, playing with players he is already familiar with should add up to better results from the corner, if anything. Jason Kapono will be starting, something that helps his % significantly. He will once again be in the enviable position of playing with serious scoring threats that need to be defended against, giving him open looks. And Adrea Bargnani has the good fortune to be established on the team, in familiar surroundings, and presumably not likely to suffer appendicitis again. I expect a good start from him, after his experience this summer playing ball in Europe.

Quite frankly, adding Chris Bosh and TJ Ford into this mix, there is not a starting 5 in the East that has a chance of playing effective defense against the Raps. The next big question…can the Raps play effective enough defense against anyone else to allow their significant scoring punch to win them games? Check back in December and we will all know better