Puffers Posts - Raps over New Jersey

Well, where did that come from? No disrespect to the Raptors or any fans, but no one was looking for a 37 point drubbing of the team that put the Raps out of the playoffs last year. It kind of makes you wonder what happened. I watched the game last night, and it all kind of just unfolded in front of me, so this morning I decided to have a closer look at the boxscore. Here's what I found.

1. TJ and Calderon combined for 18 points, 15 assists and only 3 turnovers(all Fords)
2. Raps hit 15 of 16 Free throws (a 93.8% average)
3. Raps grabbed 37 rebounds
4. Raps shot 59.1% from 3 point land, making 13 0f 22
5. Raps shot 50.6% from the field.

Of course, the big question is why they achieved these marks? Are they likely to approach these kind of numbers again? Let's break it down.

1. Over his career TJ has averaged 7 assists to 3 turnovers. Calderon 5 to 1.5. So far this year they are 31 to 5. This is mostly due to a phenomenal improvement in the way Jose is taking care of the ball. This was evident in the preseason and it is holding true in the season so far. TJ is also playing much more controlled ball. I think it would have shown up even more in the preseason had the Raps not played against three Euro teams. Team defense is tighter and individual defensive skills are slightly higher in the top Erupean teams, I believe, than in the NBA.

2. The Raps starting 5, career wise, average 81% from the stripe. The next three, Delfino, Calderon and Dixon, average 78%. It isn't till you hit Nesterovic that there is any drop off. They have simply put together a good FT shooting team. The Nets starting five average 74%. They hit 72% during last nights game.

3. Kapono. Delfino, Dixon and Calderon combined for 18 rebounds against the Nets. Bosh only picked up 5 in 27 minutes, which is below his normal mark, but he is still rounding into shape. The large number of rb's from the guards and wing players speaks to the large number of outside shots and also the way the wing players are going for the glass, as per Mitchells instructions. Credit Bargnani as well, with having picked up his rebbounding. So far he has gathered in 11 in 55 minutes of play.

4. Three point shooting as a strength should not be a surprise on this team. Kapono was last years leader and, for his career, has always had a higher 3 pt average than field goal average. Parker was tied for 5th in the NBA last year and Bargnani, at the end of last season, was hitting a large % of his 3 pt shots.

5. The high % for this game is not going to be an aberation. (Not that I expect THAT high a % every game). The way the team can open up their offense should lead to high % shots inside, for Bosh and Bargs, driving opportunities for Calderon and Ford, and also leave Parker, Kapono, Delfino and Dixon relatively open from outside. The abilities of the second unit, when matched against other teams rotation players should also lead to higher % shots.

Obviously, New Jersey had a bad night. However, Kidd was harrassed by tight defense, as soon as he reached half court, and frequently before, leading to fewer fast break points.

Carter seemed entirely dis-interested once he reached his 15,000 point mark and particularly once he saw trhe game climbing out of reach. Credit Parker and Delfino for playing good defense on his as well, and for Dixon. The three of them did a good job of switching between Carter and Richardson. Of course, Richardson got his, but you have to let somebody score if you play help defense. You just don't want both to score.

This game was an encouraging sign of what could be. The team seems to have bought into the "Team Defense" concept, which includes guards and wing players rebounding, and also into the "Look for the best shot" philosophy, which should add up to numerous high assist to field goal ratio nights.

Now let's see how they do against Boston.

Puffers Posts - Raps at Lottomatica Roma

An intersting game to watch from a couple of perspectives. First, Hubie Brown was one of the commentators, and I love Hubie Brown. Next, it was interesting to see the Raps playing against a well prepared unit that has already been in training camp for 2 1/2 months and played several exhbition games together. Third, Roko and several of the Roma players were obviously trying to showcase their talents with a larger (make that North American) audience, and they showed well for themselves. The ESPN commentators mentioned several as looking NBA ready.

The Raps played with a shorter rotation, only using 11 players. Interesting to see Dixon get 16 minutes, Humphries 13 and Joey only with 7. Of course, Rasho didn't play at all, and I think the Raps could have used him, so you can't read too much into the playing time thing.

Bosh and Kapono got the most minutes at around 30 each. I'm not surprised by this since I would expect Mitchell to want to see how these two perform together.

The first half was entertaining, it kind of fell apart in the thrid but the Raps tightened it up part way through the fourth to make it a respectable win.

Aside from showing the Raps a lot of love and respect, Hubie pointed out that Kapono would be a very good fit with the Raps because they have scorers who can also drive. Their starting 5 have excellent FT %'s and with Kapono stretching the defense even more than last year, guys like Parker and Bargnani are going to to benefit, since they can put the ball on the floor and either score or draw the fouls.

Also interesting were some stats that the commentators threw out. They mentioned that in the last 61 games of the season, the Raps won 40, which was better than all but 4 other teams in the league, all in the west. They had the best record in the east for that stretch, edging out Detroit. As well, that 61 game stretch represented a turn around defensively from a -4 points per game differential to a +3 points per game differential, a 7 point jump. The implication is that for the last 3/4 of the season, Totonto played much better defensively.

Watching Kapono and Delphino and seeing some improvement in Bargnani, and hoping that Garbs can play the full year, I would have to believe that losing Morris Peterson isn't going to hurt the Raps. I think they will be a defensively improved team this season.

It's early, but I'm pumped. Let's start the season NOW.

The Other Side - Crunch Time for BryCo

Around this time last year, Bryan Colangelo made a lot of people scratch their heads by leaving one of the best teams in the league, the Phoenix Suns, to come to one of the worst: the Toronto Raptors. It was an inconceivable move to some: why walk away from a cushy job, in a city where it's always summer, to come to the "frozen wastes of Canada" and a team that lost to Maccabi Tel Aviv? Madness.

Or was it? Those who follow basketball closely could come up with several reasons for Colangelo to jump, not least of which was the chance to get out from under his father's shadow. Jerru Colangelo is a legend in the NBA, and is responsible for some of the best trades in league history. As long as Bryan was in Phoenix, there was always going to be an element that believed good old dad was pulling the strings, not him. This same element probably believed he didn't deserve the job he had. A change of scenery gave him the chance to prove that he could build his own team, without help from dad, while simultaneously showing his father that he was just as good.

Coming a close second was the situation he was coming to. Phoenix had been built from the ground up, with shrewd cap management, intelligent trades and scouting, and a touch of luck. Colangelo appears to be a GM who believes in building around what you have, and not in changing what you have to build according to your ideal mould. Phoenix is an athletic, small running team that puts up ridiculous offensive numbers. They can do this because of 3 players: Nash, Marion and Stoudamire. Everyone else fits around them. Toronto had nothing worth keeping outside of Bosh, Mo Pete and Villanueva, so there was a lot more room for Colangelo to manouvre. The Raptors also had ridiculous cap room and a city hungry for a team to cheer. This was jsut the clean slate that Colangelo needed to prove his point.

So, the jump having been made, Colangelo set about building his team. Out went the dregs of other team's benches. Out went draft mistakes. In came multi-faceted players from overseas, an underutilised but athletic 2-guard, a couple of role players and, in the most controversial move, out went Villanueva, one of last season's top 3 rookies, for a point guard with a questionable spine but undoubted quicks and mercurial talent. Before a shot had been taken, this team was either doomed to the lottery, or headed for the playoffs, depending on who you listened to. Colangelo, having heard it all before in Phoenix, smiled and waited.

Preseason came, and the Raptors played out of this world. Everything they tried worked. The team gelled well. Fred Jones, who most people thought was a good pickup despite also being a second choice behind John Salmons, caught fire. Still, the negativity was rife. Preseason means nothing, came the cry. They're playing against scrubs. Colangelo, who'd heard all of it before, smiled, waited, and cheered on his team.

Start of the season, and the Raptors struggled out of the gate. The negative crowd started rolling the pastry for the crust of a most excellent crow pie to feed the positive crowd. They, in turn, were pointing to a lack of familiarity with each other and a nasty road schedule to start the season, as excuses. Bargnani, the team's first ever number 1 overall pick, looked lost. So did the European imports. Bosh was playing well, and TJ Ford was doing OK, but we were losing. Sam Mitchell's job was called into question. Colangelo, who was used to hearing all this, smiled, waited, cheered on his team, and watched them improve.

And now here we are, scant weeks from the team's first playoff appearance in several seasons. Colangelo has made mistakes, namely Fred Jones and PJ Tucker, and has corrected them both: Jones was traded for Juan Dixon, and Tucker has now been released and replaced with former lottery pick Luke Jackson. Dixon has been playing very well on both ends, and costs less than Jones did, which is a plus. Jackson is a good shooter who can penetrate but has suspect defense...which should ring familiar to Raptor fanse.

What comes next, though, will determine if Colangelo has "Onions baby, onions!" or if it's time to "Get out the salami and cheese, momma, this general manager job is OVER!". And, unlike most GM's in the league, very little will rely on his team's performance in the playoffs. The negative crowd will tell you that, despite the team's offensive prowess and their undoubted defensive improvement over last year, the team is still a poor rebounding unit, and well sub-par defensively. They will also point to the number of wins this team has had this year against other teams missing their top stars. None of our success of this season is likely to be repeated next year unless the rebounding and defense are rectified. They are pointing to siging Luke Jackson as evidence of this. Those who are more optimistic will point to the fact that adding one defensive stopper to 14 sieves on defence is like using a cocktail umbrella in a hurricane: largely pointless and unlikely to last. Instead of trying to address a glaring hole with a very small plug, instead improve and already good area of the team and add a slightly different dimension to it. There is precedent, albeit from other sports: the great Brazillian soccer teams win games by the mantra: "It doesn't matter if you score 3 goals, we'll score 5 anyway". This seams to be the way Toronto are going. In the East, there are not many teams who can trade shots with Toronto, Washington being the best equipped. Of the playoff-bound teams, only Detroit is good enough to shut down the Raptors on a night when the shots are falling.

Next season, though, Colangelo has some serious work ahead of him. Bosh and Ford have their extensions activated, together earning over $20 million. The salary cap has been estimated around $57 million. Peterson is likely to leave, possibly via sign and trade, but we'll presume not for the purpose of this article. Sow is not likely to be extended, and Darrick Martin may be asked to move behind the bench. That's about $12 million off. Given we're currently under by about $2 million, and the cap is going up about $3 million, we're still over the cap. Meaning less flexibility. Colangelo will have a mid-level exception to work with, around $5.7 million, plus the possibility of trading Joey Graham, a possible sign and trade for Mo Pete, and a draft pick. Somehow, he has to turn those assets into 2 or 3 players who can rebound and defend at something approaching the league average for their positions. And it's not the best year for it.

There's no glaring impending free agent that rebounds or makes stops, so we're relying on Colangelo's ability to find hidden gems, either overseas, on the ends of benches, or on the trading blocks. He also has to remember that Calderon is going to need extending, and will want big money after the way he's played this year. Ultimately, the way Mr Colangelo handles the next 4-6 months will determine his legacy in this league, more than anything he has done until now. Only time will tell if he is as good as he says he is, or if daddy dearest was the one with the brains.