Puffers Posts - Pass the #$&^@*&^% Ball

Meriam Webster Online dictionary:
pass - a: to transfer or transmit from one to another
- b: to put in circulation

With apologies to MW, I thought I would just put my version of their definition up here in case any members of the Raps organization takes the time to read what their troubled fans write about them.

I usually like to have the boxscore open in front of me on the screen when I write these little missives, to keep myself grounded in reality (I know you won't agree I keep myself grounded in reality Scott) and to avoid making any wildly exaggerated claims. I couldn't bear to call up the boxscore for either the Bucks or Magic game. Nor do I think it necessary. I know, without looking, that the assist numbers are way down.

I know this because I watched the games. And, while they don't keep track of how many times a ball touches four pairs of hands before a shot is attempted, I have a great sense of how many times that has happened amongst the Raps players in the last two games. 0. Well, maybe I remember wrong. Maybe it ws 1/2 of 0. I know it wasn't 3, or 4, or 5 times.

What happened to the passing game? Why haven't I heard Chuck say "Now that's Raptor basketball" since last Sunday? It is because the whole squad seems to have devolved into some kind of ugly mob of one-on-one, 'I've got to save the team' mindless automatons.

Apologies to TJ, whose shot has been falling. And who starts the game out passing. But after 15 minutes of nobody managing to shoot above 15%, he believes it is up to him to score. Hey TJ, no one player not named Bryant or James, is going to win a basketball game by himself. You've got to keep passing the ball.

It's not all Fords fault, by any means. The whole team has lost confidence in their own AND their teammates abilities to score. That is the only explanation I can think of for the lack of 'swinging the ball around to the open man' effort. The open man has been clancking shots. It looks like the only passes occurring are from guys who are afraid to shoot.

The last quarter of the Orlando game showed some slight evidence of the shooting slump maybe going away. And watching Bargs take it to the hole did my heart good. Watching some semblance of the real Bosh appear once again also did my heart good. But maybe the best part of the night was the way the crowd gave extended appreciation to Garbo when he came on the floor and when he hit his shot. They were obviously sending a message. And by that time in the game, there was precious little to feel good about.

I don't even want to talk about Sam's rotations, or player combinations. He's sending messages too, and they don't have anything to do with how hard players are working in practice, or the kind of effort they are making on trhe floor. He's saying he has lost confidence in his own guys. And a coach can't send that kind of message.

For whatever reason, four of the starting five are clanking shots. Bosh may have injury, conditioning issues. With Bargs, Parker, and Kapono, either the Raps offense has changed and that is throwing them off, or their own heads (self-confidence) are screwing with them. Bring back Hopla, or get a team shrink.

Puffers Posts _ Raps Fall In Overtime

On a night when only TJ Ford and Rasho Nesterovic could come close to hitting their career numbers for field goal %, the Raps lost to the Big Three and company by 3 points in overtime.

After watching the game, all I can say is, if Boston is the favoured team to come out of the East, then the West should have no trouble. Unless, that is, the Raps are much better than they have been given credit for.

With Bosh shooting 5 - 15, Bargnani shooting 2 - 13, Parker 2 - 6, Dixon 1 - 4 and Calderon 2 - 11, the Raps still managed to never let the game slip out of reach. Bosh, Parker, Bargs, Kapono and Delfino managed to corral 32 rebounds and the Raps matched Bostons total of 42, with 12 of them at the offensive end. They actually outscored Boston at the free throw line by one, after getting almost no trips in the first half.

Ford had a bad night at the office, as far as turnovers to assist ratios go. The Raps only managed 17 assists in total, and only 5 for Ford to go with his 5 TO's. Too much of the first half of the game was firing the ball in to Bosh for an unsuccessful attempt to go 1 on 1 for a basket in the paint. Eventually it led to 5 fouls on Garnett, but the Raps were trying to dig themselves out of a hole by then.

Where was the crisp passing around the perimeter? Where were the open shots? After so many of the starters going 0 for their first 5 attmepts, Sam must have wanted them to work it inside. I think he should have just let them shoot themselves out of their slump.

Having said that, while the Big Three never looked scared, they did look awful vulnerable. If the Raps had even managed to hit 35% of their shots in the first quarter, this game would have been over halfway through the fourth. Of course, could'a, would'a, should'a. As our friend Scott will no doubt point out, live by the jump shot, die by the jump shot.

Puffers Posts - Raps over New Jersey

Well, where did that come from? No disrespect to the Raptors or any fans, but no one was looking for a 37 point drubbing of the team that put the Raps out of the playoffs last year. It kind of makes you wonder what happened. I watched the game last night, and it all kind of just unfolded in front of me, so this morning I decided to have a closer look at the boxscore. Here's what I found.

1. TJ and Calderon combined for 18 points, 15 assists and only 3 turnovers(all Fords)
2. Raps hit 15 of 16 Free throws (a 93.8% average)
3. Raps grabbed 37 rebounds
4. Raps shot 59.1% from 3 point land, making 13 0f 22
5. Raps shot 50.6% from the field.

Of course, the big question is why they achieved these marks? Are they likely to approach these kind of numbers again? Let's break it down.

1. Over his career TJ has averaged 7 assists to 3 turnovers. Calderon 5 to 1.5. So far this year they are 31 to 5. This is mostly due to a phenomenal improvement in the way Jose is taking care of the ball. This was evident in the preseason and it is holding true in the season so far. TJ is also playing much more controlled ball. I think it would have shown up even more in the preseason had the Raps not played against three Euro teams. Team defense is tighter and individual defensive skills are slightly higher in the top Erupean teams, I believe, than in the NBA.

2. The Raps starting 5, career wise, average 81% from the stripe. The next three, Delfino, Calderon and Dixon, average 78%. It isn't till you hit Nesterovic that there is any drop off. They have simply put together a good FT shooting team. The Nets starting five average 74%. They hit 72% during last nights game.

3. Kapono. Delfino, Dixon and Calderon combined for 18 rebounds against the Nets. Bosh only picked up 5 in 27 minutes, which is below his normal mark, but he is still rounding into shape. The large number of rb's from the guards and wing players speaks to the large number of outside shots and also the way the wing players are going for the glass, as per Mitchells instructions. Credit Bargnani as well, with having picked up his rebbounding. So far he has gathered in 11 in 55 minutes of play.

4. Three point shooting as a strength should not be a surprise on this team. Kapono was last years leader and, for his career, has always had a higher 3 pt average than field goal average. Parker was tied for 5th in the NBA last year and Bargnani, at the end of last season, was hitting a large % of his 3 pt shots.

5. The high % for this game is not going to be an aberation. (Not that I expect THAT high a % every game). The way the team can open up their offense should lead to high % shots inside, for Bosh and Bargs, driving opportunities for Calderon and Ford, and also leave Parker, Kapono, Delfino and Dixon relatively open from outside. The abilities of the second unit, when matched against other teams rotation players should also lead to higher % shots.

Obviously, New Jersey had a bad night. However, Kidd was harrassed by tight defense, as soon as he reached half court, and frequently before, leading to fewer fast break points.

Carter seemed entirely dis-interested once he reached his 15,000 point mark and particularly once he saw trhe game climbing out of reach. Credit Parker and Delfino for playing good defense on his as well, and for Dixon. The three of them did a good job of switching between Carter and Richardson. Of course, Richardson got his, but you have to let somebody score if you play help defense. You just don't want both to score.

This game was an encouraging sign of what could be. The team seems to have bought into the "Team Defense" concept, which includes guards and wing players rebounding, and also into the "Look for the best shot" philosophy, which should add up to numerous high assist to field goal ratio nights.

Now let's see how they do against Boston.

Puffer's Posts - D-Fense, D-Fense

Last nights game against the Cavaliers was interesting for me from a couple of perspectives. First, it gave me another opportunity to carry on my Kapono watching. And second, I was able to add to my "Bargs in the paint" memory bank of significant moments. What I saw in both cases helped make me the happy camper I am today. Delfino having a "break out game" was defintely icing on the cake. And Ford, with 13 assists to 2 turnovers and only 8 shot attempts on a poor (25%) shooting night was like having that nice, light, whipped icing.

Kapono did not guard his position, which made everyone happy, since that would have had him trying to stop King James. That job fell to Anthony Parker, who managed to do a good job while only picking up 3 Personal Fouls. Kapono spent most of his time on either Devin Brown, or Larry Hughes. Both started the majority of their games last year, and both played on a team that went to the finals last year. Brown had slightly lower numbers than last year, on slightly more minutes, and Hughes had just 1 point under his season average, on 4 less minutes. So using the boxscore, you could say that Kapono was no worse on defense than the average NBA defender while watching either of his two assignments last night. At the same time, offensively, he got 12 points on 63% shooting, and also picked up 3 rebounds and an assist, all in 21 minutes, versus his opponents 32 minutes each.

Hey, I know this is reaching, but that's what the boxscore says. What it can't say, but I can, is that Jason fights around picks to stay with his man, plays smart help defense, alwasy keeping one eye on his assignment if he leaves to help, and he does a good job of switching.

What about Bargs defensive assignment? Gooden played a few more minutes, got a couple less points than last years average and only 6 rebounds, as against his last year average of 8. At the same time Bargs got 8 points and 5 rebounds in 22 minutes. He was 0 for 3 from the arc and missed 2 free throws. His problem is still stayijg in the game long enough to get in the flow. In the early going he had 5 personal fouls. Sam left him in for quite a while with 5, and eventually pulled him so he could play the rest of the bench.

Now Gooden is no Yao Ming, but he started in all 80 games he played in for the Cavs, and his team went to the finals last year, so this is a reasonable enough test of Bargs. Definitely a passing grade. He boxed out, was always pushing Gooden away from the basket and also played reasonably good help D. So he kept Gooden below his season averages, which makes Bargs better than Goodens average NBA defender. (Okay, I'm reaching a little, but youo get my point).

Now I don't know what you saw last night, but it was reassuring to me, amidst all this talk about Bargs not being able to play center, and ther being no "D" in Kapono.

Puffers Posts - Is This the Raptors?

Last night the Raps looked like world beaters as they took apart the Chicago Bulls. Mind you, this was a Bulls team without Ben Wallace, Ben Gordon and a game in which Luol deng only played 5 minutes or so.

On the other side, the Raps were without Chris Bosh, still resting his sore knee, and only got six minutes each from Anthony Parker and Jason Kapono. So it was largely a game of bench against bench,and that is a game the Raps would love to play, most nights.

Andrea got 19 points, with at least 6 of them coming from inside the paint on slashing drives and a few more from short inside passes. He also picked up more than his normal share of rebounds. In fact, the Raps out rebounded the Bulls for most of the game until the last half of the fourth quarter, during scrub time, when they were also out scored.

I made a point of watching Jason Kapono's defensive efforts, and he played an excellent positional game in his time on the floor. Good box outs, good face up play, effectively cutting off the lanes and, when his man was loose, disrupting passing attempts to him. Jason gets beat on D, but the times I've watched him exclusively, I've been pleasantly surprised. There are Raptors teams in the past where he would have been the number 3 man, defensively.

Of the three wing players fighting for the starting spot, I would say Kapono does a better, more consistent defensive job than Graham. You aren't going to see any athletic blocks, but he is also not going to be on the opposite side of the floor from where he is supposed to be because he forgot his assignment. I wish I could say the same about Joey.

I think Luke Jackson punched his going away ticket on Friday. The way things stand right now, there doesn't seem to be any upside for Luke, but there's really no telling where Jamario Moon could get to, except you know it's above some rung on the ladder that Jackson is climbing. Luke played well for the first few games he was in last year, but he has done nothing this preseason. I suspect he is playing tight when he does get some burn, and so makes silly anxiety motivated boneheaded plays. That is too bad, but it is not going to win him any points with Sam. Unless he is the perfect practice guy, it's hard to see him making it out of training camp.

If the Raps are to get off to a good start this season, and I think they have an excellent chance to light things up in their first dozen games, it is imperative that Chris play the next two preseason games. He needs to be in rythmn when the season starts. You know Chris will be good for 22/11 or so this year, probably better. Both Doug Smith, of the Toronto Star and I think Bargs can average right around 19/7 for the year. But it is critical that these two spend time playing together. They can create a living hell for other teams, especially in the East.

TJ has been playing largely under control so far, but we haven't seen enough NBA opponenets to make a good assessment about his play. Parker seemed to wake up a little in the Bulls game. He has been quiet so far this year. He needs to start faster than he did last year for the Raps to make a run at the Atlantic Division banner.

I believe the Raps are being under-rated again this season. I don't think enough credit is being given to Bargs improvements, because his appendicitis and flu at the end of last season caused a signifivcant drop off in his numbers and effectiveness. I think sports writers are giving too much credit to the impact of Shaq and Wade on Kapono's game last year. The Raps run a much better style of attack for Jasons skill set. He should thrive once he gets a solid rotation and a little more comfortable. I think his game was hurt in playing Euro teams, this preseason. They have a much more defensively skilled collection of players, who are better at help defense and team defense than is the case in the NBA. I think Jason will have no trouble averaging 13 - 15 points a game in 25 minutes. I think Sam will use Delfino for anywhere from 15 - 20 minutes at the 3. Too bad Joey.

I think this year, the Raps will have fewer than 10 games decided by 1-2 points. Their offense is significantly improved, and their defense is a bit better. Enough to move them three spots up the NBA ranks. Mark them down for 48 wins.

Boston??? Give me a break. They will improve to the point where they are no longer a laughing stock, maybe fighting it out for one of the last two spots in the East.

At least, that's my takee.

Puffers Posts - Raps at Lottomatica Roma

An intersting game to watch from a couple of perspectives. First, Hubie Brown was one of the commentators, and I love Hubie Brown. Next, it was interesting to see the Raps playing against a well prepared unit that has already been in training camp for 2 1/2 months and played several exhbition games together. Third, Roko and several of the Roma players were obviously trying to showcase their talents with a larger (make that North American) audience, and they showed well for themselves. The ESPN commentators mentioned several as looking NBA ready.

The Raps played with a shorter rotation, only using 11 players. Interesting to see Dixon get 16 minutes, Humphries 13 and Joey only with 7. Of course, Rasho didn't play at all, and I think the Raps could have used him, so you can't read too much into the playing time thing.

Bosh and Kapono got the most minutes at around 30 each. I'm not surprised by this since I would expect Mitchell to want to see how these two perform together.

The first half was entertaining, it kind of fell apart in the thrid but the Raps tightened it up part way through the fourth to make it a respectable win.

Aside from showing the Raps a lot of love and respect, Hubie pointed out that Kapono would be a very good fit with the Raps because they have scorers who can also drive. Their starting 5 have excellent FT %'s and with Kapono stretching the defense even more than last year, guys like Parker and Bargnani are going to to benefit, since they can put the ball on the floor and either score or draw the fouls.

Also interesting were some stats that the commentators threw out. They mentioned that in the last 61 games of the season, the Raps won 40, which was better than all but 4 other teams in the league, all in the west. They had the best record in the east for that stretch, edging out Detroit. As well, that 61 game stretch represented a turn around defensively from a -4 points per game differential to a +3 points per game differential, a 7 point jump. The implication is that for the last 3/4 of the season, Totonto played much better defensively.

Watching Kapono and Delphino and seeing some improvement in Bargnani, and hoping that Garbs can play the full year, I would have to believe that losing Morris Peterson isn't going to hurt the Raps. I think they will be a defensively improved team this season.

It's early, but I'm pumped. Let's start the season NOW.

Puffers Posts - Three Pointers in Raptors Future?

Let’s talk about three point shooting on the Raptors in the coming season, an obvious area of strength for the team. If everything stays the same as last year, the Raps will have two players among the top 5 three point experts in the league, in Jason Kapono, ranked #1 last year, and Anthony Parker who tied for #5. The question on everybody’s mind should be, will this continue?

I have high expectations that it will. Jason had the good fortune to be on a team with two of the foremost offensive threats in the league, in Shaquille O’Neal and Dwayne Wade (thanks Granville for pointing out I had Dwight Howards name here. What was I thinking?) playing with him. You would expect this to open the floor and give him more open looks.

Actually, Shaq only played 6 games in the first 4 months of the season. These were the months when Jason played his best, when he played the most minutes. He shot 61% in November in 15 m/pg, 50% in Dec. in 26 m/pg, 58% in Jan. in 32 m/pg and 46% in Feb. in 33 m/pg. Jason has a rep as getting his shot off relativley quickly, so he maybe doesn't need as much space on the floor as you would think.

March was a bit of an anomaly. He only played 2 games, averaged 26 minutes a game and only hit for 17%. It looks to me like teams started to pay attention to Jason and were able to affect his shot a little. I didn’t check the game by game stats, but I wonder if he didn’t spend a chunk of time on the bench once Shaq got back. Shooters need to shoot to keep their hands hot.

Looking at Anthony Parker, he shot a terrible 28% in November, his first month back in the NBA. December's mark improved to 48%, as he found his rhythm and Sam Mitchell found out how better to use him. January he hit his peak for the year, ringing up 53% from downtown on 60 attempts. February he slumped a little, only achieving 43% andMarch was a bad month, with his percentage sinking to 33% on 27 shots attempted.

I wonder if he was hitting his own "rookie wall?" Note also that that is his lowest recorded shot attempts of the season. April AP bounced back with a 49% average on 61 shots.

Both of these players did better when they had the playing time. This year they are both slated to begin the season as starters. What is this going to mean for the Raps offensive strategies?

There can be no question on anybodies mind that opposing teams are not going to be able to double down on Bosh this year, the way they could last year. With two 3 point artists on the floor with the big power forward, unless they can smother Chris before he gets a chance to pass, they are going to be leaving themselves open for a world of hurt. Chris has been slow to get rid of the ball at times, but in pre-season interviews he identified passing out of double teams as one of the things he has worked on over the summer. Of course, Kapono and Parker are not his only two options.

TJ Ford showed last year that he has the kind of first step that can get him to the basket virtually anytime he wants to. The complaint from the fans was that sometimes he wanted to too much. But his field goal percentage and free throw percentages were at career highs last year. Shooting 82% from the stripe should mean you want him to drive as often as possible. If TJ stopped shooting threes, his FG% would be significantly higher. His only month above 33% for 3 pointers last year was Dec. yet he still managed to drop almost 44% of his shots from the field. Chris and TJ had an excellent pick and roll game going last year. There is no reason to think it won’t continue to be as effective. Stockton and Malone lived off this bread and butter play for most of their careers.

I should mention Toronto’s other three point threat, Andrea Bargnani. His season’s results stand out because of the contrasts. November and December he shot 33% and 28% respectively. These were his first two months in the league, of course, when Sam was still trying to work him into the rotation. For January, February and March he shot 39%, 48% and 37%. In March he only played in 8 games. If you remember, through March and April he was struggling with the flu and appendicitis. April’s abysmal 20% mark is attributable to his struggles coming back. In the playoffs he was back to form, hitting 41%.

So, putting the most optimistic light on things possible (and that’s what fans do in the pre-season) Anthony Parker should not have the slow beginning he did last year. Coming back as one of the starters, playing with players he is already familiar with should add up to better results from the corner, if anything. Jason Kapono will be starting, something that helps his % significantly. He will once again be in the enviable position of playing with serious scoring threats that need to be defended against, giving him open looks. And Adrea Bargnani has the good fortune to be established on the team, in familiar surroundings, and presumably not likely to suffer appendicitis again. I expect a good start from him, after his experience this summer playing ball in Europe.

Quite frankly, adding Chris Bosh and TJ Ford into this mix, there is not a starting 5 in the East that has a chance of playing effective defense against the Raps. The next big question…can the Raps play effective enough defense against anyone else to allow their significant scoring punch to win them games? Check back in December and we will all know better