Yi Jianlian: This Year's Araujo?

In 2004 -- one of the deepest drafts in the years prior to this season -- a recently hired GM broke his NBA cherry by drafting a foreign player far higher than anyone expected. Rob Babcock really didn't have a prayer of winning any Executive of the Year awards after he plucked Rafael Araujo out of obscurity and made him the Raptors' #8 pick, passing on Andre Iguodala (#9), Andris Biedrins (#11), Al Jefferson (#15) and even Josh Smith (#17) along the way. Three years later, the scorned players (all but Iguodala were teenagers on draft day; Iggy was all of 20) are coming into their own, while Araujo is out of the NBA.

Babcock later claimed that he had inadequate time to prepare for the draft after his recent hire by the Raptors. Bucks GM Larry Harris, on the other hand, has been on the job for several years now, and doesn't have the luxury of making the same excuse after he shocked observers and drafted Yi Jianlian with the #6 overall pick in the 2007 draft.

Much of the derision aimed at the Bucks after picking Yi had to do with drafting a player that, from all indications, greeted the chance to play in Cheeseville with the enthusiasm Shawn Kemp used to have for court-ordered paternity tests. But the real risk isn't that the Bucks drafted a player that didn't want to be there, but drafted a player that no one really knew anything about.

At this point, I can say that I've seen every minute of Yi's NBA career -- a pair of exhibition games against the Bulls and Utah, respectively. Let me make a proclamation so assured that it hardly qualifies as such: if Yi Jianlian has a future in this league, it's as a rather mediocre role player.

Prior to the draft, the only footage circulating of Yi rivaled the Zapruder Film in quality. An NBA exec with a decent budget (this is Milwaukee, after all) could probably obtain more, but I wonder if the Bucks were aware that the camera only added ten pounds. Yi is pencil thin -- it's impossible to overstate just how skinny he is. I've seen Luol Deng as a 19 year old, and Tayshaun Prince in high school when he was teammates with Tyson Chandler (speaking of basing a draft pick on workouts and grainy footage...) Yi is easily the thinnest player I've seen since Manute Bol or Chuck Nevitt, and like those players, I have difficulty imaginging him putting significant weight on.

Yet with the arms of a teenage girl, one would expect Yi to possess some dimension of agility or quickness. He doesn't. And Yi is incredibly awkward both with the ball and running the court -- almost like a child that's gone through a dramatic growth spurt and hasn't yet adjusted to his size.

This then is the real importance of Yi's disputed age. He's "officially" 19 years old, though there's some evidence he may be as old as 25. Though he does look younger than the latter, this isn't exactly compelling evidence: I saw former Bulls guard BJ Armstrong a few months ago, and I'd still card him if I saw him trying to buy beer. There should be as much optimism that an older Yi will bulk up or suddenly gallop like a deer as there is that noted eunuch Doug Christie will be on an NBA roster come November 1st.

In any case, the Bucks shifted Yi around the frontcourt in both games as they're as clueless as I am about what kind of match-up would give him a marked advantage over an opponent. He was routinely beaten off the dribble by smaller players, where his lack of agility and quickness against even second-tier NBA small forwards was obvious. At the power positions, unathletic big men like the Bulls' Aaron Gray (a second round pick expected to spend most of this season commuting between the bench and the D-League) were able to knock him around and even -- surprisingly for a 7'0" defender with long arms -- shoot over him. You can't teach height, but outside of Rocky chasing chickens around, you can't teach agility either.

I'm at a loss to think of anything, in fact, that it looks like Yi can do better than the average. Outside of "hit open shots" (a skill that even Ben Wallace can manage -- I'm serious, he can drain 3 pointers in practice), I can't think of one. What you have is a fairly average seven footer with a better touch than most guys his size but deficient in nearly every other aspect of the game. Due to his physique, I have difficulty imagining this changing. It's an absolute certainty that it won't if he's as old as I think he is.

Yet the Bucks don't have the convenience of stashing Yi in the weight room for the next 12 months to try to get him to add some much needed bulk. Like the Raptors with Araujo, the pressure of being an unexpected lottery pick places considerable pressure on a team to force minutes on a player that's clearly overmatched. There's even more pressure on the Bucks to overplay Yi: after all, having him buried on the bench behind Charlie Villanueva, Desmond Mason and Bobby Simmons would be exactly what the team promised the various Commie athletic organizations would not happen.