Saturday, April 7, 2007

Puffers Posts - Second Season, Second Unit

So with the Toronto Raptors a guaranteed playoff team, what can we expect? As a team, when they move the ball well, they are stacked with shooters at virtually every position, and have numerous players that can slash to the basket, create their own shot or stretch the defence with jumpers from 15 + feet out. As a team they are shooting field goals at a .464 clip, tied for 7th in the league. The Raps are 9th in 3 pointers, at .363. They have a good assist to turnover ratio and rank 11th in the NBA in APG. These are pretty good numbers and suggest they deserve to be having the season they are.

On the down side their transition defence is suspect or poor. Their rebounding is abysmal, often giving up second chance opportunities to the opposing team. They are ranked 27th in the league. Funny thing is though, they are only 2 rebounds a game behind Washington, which is ranked 10th. Their stat for steals is similar in that they are ranked 19th, but they are only 1 steal a game behind Washington, who is ranked 4th.

So statistically, they are in the upper third of the league offensively, and the bottom third defensively. What does this all mean?

Well, the Raps are going to be in trouble in a grind it out style of game. Missing rebounds, defensive ones in particular, mean second chances for the other side. Teams that walk it up the floor, run set plays and have players that can operate in the paint are going to score against the Raptors. On their side, the Raps have been playing better defensively. Adrea will be back for the playoffs, and his defensive positioning has improved tremendously since day one. Another big boost to the Raps has been the arrival of Kris Humphries as a confident second line player. With Garbs out, Kris has been the player to make the most of his minutes, showing a previously untapped scoring touch and showing the kind of aggression needed to actually grab some boards. His play has toughened up the second unit significantly. In fact, the second unit is the Raps secret weapon leading into the palyoffs.

It has been one of the lead stories all year, and it just keeps getting better. With the stellar play of Calderon, the emergence of Humphries, the move of Peterson to the bench, the trade for Dixon, Joey Grahams recent surge, Bargnani's continually improved play, and even the pick up of Luke Jackson, the Raps have, no argument, the deepest roster in the conference.

The starting five for the playoff run is going to be Bosh, Ford, Graham, Nesterovic and Parker, unless we see the reappearance of "Bad" Joey. Mitchells biggest problem may well be, how do you shorten the rotation. when you have so many players playing so well?

Calderon, Bargnani and Dixon are guaranteed to be in the mix, assuming they are healthy. Peterson has shown he is still a defensive stopper, the last couple of games, and has been able to take it to the cup when Sam wanted the Raps to go inside. Humphries has been a beast, playing well against both Shaq and Dwight Howard. Mitchell has plenty of options, and I suspect what he will do is play the matchups, and forget about doling out minutes. The players on this team have shown their willingness to do whatever it takes and not complain. So Sam has the luxury to play both strategic and tactical basketball, going into games with a plan, but having the players to move around on the board when and as he has to.

If the Raps have any particular advantages it is these two. They can afford to go like hell, not worrying about saving any energy for the last 5 minutes, because they can spell each other off, with not much loss in scoring or even in defense. And Sam can play his players strategically, to counter the other teams roster moves. Most of the time, in the playoffs, teams shorten the rotation. it will be interesting to see what Sam does. He may wind up lengthening his, compared to the start of the year.

For interest' sake, I made a note of the bench's scoring for the year. These numbers tell a story.

Juan Dixon..........................11.8
Andrea Bargnani..................11.5
Morris Peterson.....................9.2
Jose Calderon.......................8.7
Kris Humphries....................3.4
Luke Jackson........................2.5
Total....................................47.1